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Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.CITIC Securities: The short-term copper price rebound has a foundation, and it pays attention to the allocation opportunities of the copper plate. CITIC Securities Research Report said that the recent TC negotiation results of copper concentrates, frequent domestic policy warm winds, and the off-season destocking of domestic stocks have been resonantly catalyzed, superimposed with the fall of the US dollar. We believe that the short-term copper price rebound has a foundation and the medium-term fundamental expectations are more solid. We predict that the copper price in the next quarter will run in the range of 9000-10000 USD/ton, which has strong upward elasticity in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of copper plate. It is suggested to comprehensively select stocks from the dimensions of segment valuation rationality, output growth next year and copper price elasticity.This year's performance is the worst since the epidemic, and Starbucks will reduce the salary increase for its employees. An internal document shows that in view of the company's worst financial performance since the epidemic, Starbucks will reduce the salary increase for its coffee shop employees. According to different qualifications, this year's salary increase is generally between 2% and 3%, while last year's salary increase was at least 3%, and employees who have served for five years or more were at least 5%. The salary increase will take effect on December 30, and employees will see the change of payroll on January 10 or January 17.

Senior Advisor of Shi Pomao: Japan must be prepared for Trump tariffs. One of Japan's top security officials said that Japan needs to be prepared for the threat of US President-elect Trump to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and adjust the supply chain to reduce the collateral damage to Japanese enterprises. Akihisa Nagashima, national security adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shi Pomao, said that during his recent visit to the United States, he had a "frank" communication with Trump team members on tariff issues. "I realized that Japan must be ready for Trump to implement his plan," he said.Guotai Junan: The rise of leading enterprises and the downward shift of costs are important features of the steel industry entering a new cycle. Guotai Junan issued a document saying that with the change of demand structure, the demand for plates has steadily increased, and the demand for high-end plates such as automobiles, household appliances, shipbuilding, offshore engineering and energy is strong. The added value and profit per ton of products brought by leading companies' active adjustment of product structure, accumulation of products, R&D drive, continuous capital expenditure and equipment investment have been significantly improved, gradually widening the gap with the industry average gross profit. When the industry is facing the marginal losses of most steel enterprises, leading companies still maintain a high profit level by relying on the cost advantages brought by product differences and management, and the rise and differentiation of industry leaders are emerging. On the other hand, with the gradual increase in the supply side and the difficulty in improving the demand side, iron ore has gradually entered a loose cycle, and the steel cost constraints are expected to gradually improve.Luxury car dealers "switch to" domestic brands, and the competition between new and old forces spread to the channel side. Recently, Beijing Huayang Aotong Automobile Sales Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Huayang Aotong") announced that "the company will no longer continue the distribution business of Audi brands, but will continue to engage in the maintenance business of Audi models". On December 12, the reporter went to Huayang Aotong in Laiguangying, Beijing. The above announcement was posted at the entrance, and the store has been replaced with the "AITO" logo. There is no Audi car in the store, and it has been replaced by two models for sale in the world. A luxury brand dealer who did not want to be named revealed to reporters that Huayang Aotong had indeed been cancelled by Audi, and Zhengzhou Zhongsheng Huidi Store was also withdrawn from the network with it, all because it switched to Huawei's channel network without permission. "The war between new forces and traditional car companies has burned from the product side to the channel side." According to Zhang Xiuyang, secretary-general of China Passenger Car Industry Alliance, the "price war" that lasted for nearly two years has made it difficult for car dealers who are in retail terminals and have been upside down all the year round, and their loyalty has also declined. At the same time, in the tide of the era of smart cars, the concept of consumption is changing rapidly, and the high-end electric vehicle brands in China are gradually winning the wide favor of the market and consumers. (Securities Daily)

Onlikon: Compound α-keto acid tablets are planned to be selected for the tenth batch of national centralized drug procurement. Onlikon announced on December 13, and on December 12, the company participated in the bidding for the tenth batch of national centralized drug procurement organized by the National Drug Joint Procurement Office. After the bid opening and evaluation by the Joint Procurement Office, the company plans to select this centralized drug procurement. The indication of that medicine is to prevent and treat the damage caused by metabolic disorder in protein due to chronic renal insufficiency. The drug is a national medical insurance catalogue product, with an annual sales of 218,900 yuan in 2023, accounting for 0.01% of the company's annual operating income in 2023.Du Zhaocai, former deputy director of the State Sports General Administration, will be sentenced in the first instance today. Today, Du Zhaocai, former deputy director of the State Sports General Administration, will be sentenced in the Wuhan Intermediate People's Court.Ministry of National Defense: There is no need for the Japanese side to be frightened. On the morning of December 13th, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, released news about the recent military-related issues. Reporter: Japanese Prime Minister Shi Pomao recently delivered a policy address, saying that the current international order is facing major challenges. Chinese aircraft carriers sail in the waters close to Japan's territorial waters, and carrier-based aircraft have conducted thousands of take-off and landing trainings in the Pacific Ocean; Based on the national security strategy, Japan will greatly strengthen its defense forces. What is China's comment on this? Wu Qian: The so-called "China military threat" was hyped by the Japanese side only to cover up its usual trick of getting rid of the shackles of the peaceful constitution and returning to the old road of military expansion. As a matter of fact, the diplomatic and defense departments of China and Japan have been maintaining communication on air and sea security issues. There is absolutely no need for the Japanese side to be jittery and nervous. The publication of these data just proves that the Japanese side has been tracking, monitoring and interfering with Chinese ships and aircraft at close range for a long time, endangering the safety of Chinese ships and aircraft and easily causing sea and air safety problems. In recent years, despite the opposition of the international community, Japan has gone further and further on the road of military expansion, which has aroused strong concern among neighboring countries and the international community. We urge Japan to draw lessons from history, be cautious in the field of military security and do more things that are conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability. China is willing to continue to maintain communication with Japan on properly handling air and sea emergencies, and hopes that Japan will move in the same direction with China, take the overall situation into consideration, take the right path, and jointly safeguard the stability of the air and sea situation and the overall situation of Sino-Japanese relations.